Each year the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes 10-year projections for every job category, nearly 1,000 categories in total. These projections are taken very seriously, not just by economists and the media, but by everyday Americans planning their educational and professional futures.
Because the BLS is the ultimate authority on jobs data in the U.S., a new study by Education Advisors put its numbers to the test. Researchers analyzed the last 20 years of job projections, calculating when and in what sectors the BLS has been most inaccurate. As students head back for a new school year, readers might be surprised to see how teachers ranked.
BLS Predictions for Education Jobs
From 2002 to 2022, the BLS predictions for “Educational Instruction and Library” jobs have been overestimated time and time again. However, these estimations have slowly gotten less inaccurate throughout the decades, going from a -14% to a -8% by decade. These percentages show the difference between projected and actual jobs by the end of each period. Last period, the overestimation for this category was by 7%, although they are still predicting a 2% expansion for this current period. Essentially, while they predicted that there would be more job growth than occurred in the last period, they are still forecasting some job growth for this period.
What does that mean for individual educational jobs? According to BLS, “Other teachers and instructors" and "Arts, communications, history, and humanities teachers, postsecondary" categories have made the top 25 most overestimated jobs in the last decade. This means that the amount of growth in these job categories has declined, which is not surprising considering society’s move to technology and STEM over the arts. If you’re looking toward that kind of career path, you may face a tough time landing a job. Whether you’re in school now or simply considering a similar major, you may want to take the BLS numbers into account and consider another option.
BLS Predictions Overall
While an authority, BLS predictions are not the final word on job and industry growth. In fact, the BLS has overestimated job growth by 5.6% each year for 20 years. That might not seem like a large percentage, but that 5.6% equates to about nine million jobs. The BLS has also either overestimated or underestimated job growth by 20% or more for nearly half of all job categories.
There are some things to keep in mind when looking at the inaccuracy of these predictions. First, when it comes to the 20-year estimate, you should know that four out of the five most overestimated job categories occurred in the 2002 to 2012 forecast period. The Great Recession of 2008 happened in that timeframe, which was something that economists did not account for. Additionally, large external shocks to the economy are also unable to be predicted. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic caused issues within the economy, but economists had no way of predicting the reach of this global pandemic. So some of the inaccuracies may have been exacerbated by those external factors.
Overall BLS Predictions
When you’re deciding what field you should get your education in, it could be worth it to compare BLS predictions to actual jobs available. For example, if you’re looking to get your degree in computer engineering, you might be in luck! The most underestimated job category of the past decade was mathematical science occupations. The field is growing and you have a good chance of landing a job after you graduate.
On the other hand, one of the most overestimated job categories in the last decade was personal care and service workers. This industry, which includes several occupations from group fitness instructors and barbers to travel guides and childcare workers, was predicted to grow, but seemed to experience a decline instead. So unless you have your heart set on it, you should consider other options before investing time and money in pursuing an education for jobs in this category.
The most overestimated job category over the past 20 years was Model Makers and Patternmakers (Wood). Economists overestimated growth by 80%, which means that this industry is starting to decline in the number of available jobs. However, the most underestimated job category over the past 20 years was Miscellaneous Health Technologists and Technicians, which includes jobs such as orthotists, prosthetists, and hearing aid specialists. This category was underestimated by a whopping 1,637%, meaning this is a growing industry with good potential for young graduates to land a job.
As we know, forecasts are just predictions and they aren’t perfect. This analysis aims to show areas where the BLS predictions were not perfect, so professionals and students can make educated decisions for their future.
