We have all heard the predictions of the enrollment cliff that is expected to land on campuses as early as the fall semester of 2025. Under the widely discussed doomsday scenario, mass enrollment declines caused by a decline in birth rate eighteen years ago are unavoidable for campuses everywhere. It is true - there was a decline in birth rates starting with the Great Recession. However, that does not paint the full picture of the landscape of higher education, both in terms of the challenges faced and the opportunities presented to colleges and universities. Schools committed to transforming their approach and embracing a unified enrollment strategy that engages the entire Modern Learner audience can and will thrive and grow.
The recently released National Student Clearinghouse data on fall 2024 enrollments reinforced that higher education is undergoing a significant enrollment shift rather than an enrollment cliff. While freshman enrollment declined a staggering 5 percent from fall 2023, overall enrollment grew 3 percent over that same period. In EducationDynamics’ recently published 2025 Higher Ed Landscape Report, we examined both the challenges and opportunities in front of colleges and universities. Here are the primary factors we identified as contributing to this enrollment shift and the reshaping of the higher education landscape for the foreseeable future.
Modern Learners Choose Their Own Enrollment Pathway
The defining lines between what we know of as “traditional” and “non-traditional” (or adult) student populations have blurred over the past several years to the point that age is no longer a predictor of learning modality. More college-age adults are deferring college to enter the workforce and then turning to school when it makes sense for them. Consider this: The median age of part-time undergraduate students is declining and was under 25 in spring 2024, according to the National Student Clearinghouse. At the same time, the median age of online students responding to our Online College Students survey also declined, to an undergraduate median age of 29 in 2024.
Meanwhile, the popularity of dual enrollment programs among high school students both expose the next generation to college-level coursework and gives these students a leg up on their eventual path to higher education. These programs often help reduce the burden of cost on students and create new pathways for students.
Modern Learners are Prioritizing Pathways Delivering Career Outcomes
Modern Learners are also prioritizing pathways that deliver career outcomes, increasingly in the form of alternative credentials. Undergraduate certificate completion increased 13.4% from 2019 to 2023, while graduate certificate completion increased 27.5% over that same period, according to NCES IPEDS completion data. In total, nearly 30% of respondents to our Online College Students Report are interested in seeking an undergraduate or graduate certificate. Most of these students, 78% of certificate respondents, intend to pursue a degree or additional credentials at some point in the future. These certificate programs are valued for providing both immediate and long-term career benefits.
Apprenticeships Increasingly Pursued as a Valuable Pathway
Apprenticeships are also a valuable, and increasingly popular, path to desired career outcomes. Over the past decade, apprenticeships have increased over 100%, with 640,000 active apprenticeships in 2024, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
Today’s apprenticeships are being pursued in a wide range of industries. The Construction industry still accounts for the largest percent of apprenticeships in 2024 (34.5%) according to the Registered Apprenticeships Partners Information Database System (RAPIDS). However, that is followed by Public Administration (22.4%) and Education Services (11.2%). Meanwhile, apprenticeships in the Finance and Insurance (17.3%) and Healthcare and Social Assistance (9.3%) fields have grown the fastest in the past year. This growing interest in a variety of sectors illustrates the expanding opportunities apprenticeships offer for career advancement across multiple industries. Higher education plays a significant role in these apprenticeships by providing credit for real-world work experience and delivering supplemental classroom-based education to support apprenticeship programs.
Economic Factors Suggest Employment Stability
Economic data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that we are entering a period of employment stability, with modest shifts in the unemployment rate throughout 2024. After a slight rise in unemployment, peaking at 4.3% in July, the rates decreased to 4.1% in September, indicating a transition from a growing job market to a stable one. Given these conditions, a stable market creates an environment where workers are staying in jobs longer and focusing more on advancing skills and careers, rather than entering the job market in large numbers.
For higher education, this stability presents an opportunity to focus on meeting the ongoing needs of workers, supporting workforce development without the immediate pressure of economic uncertainty. Higher education institutions can leverage this stability to create programs that cater to adult learners who seek to advance in their careers.
The Workforce Requires Upskilling
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also reveals that the Labor Force Participation Rate remains steady due to an aging population and the retirement of many older workers being offset by new workers are entering the workforce. However, as more senior employees exit, they leave behind a skills gap that needs to be addressed. Higher education, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels, plays a crucial role in providing workers with the necessary training and skills to fill knowledge gaps in leadership senior positions.
Moreover, the rapid pace of technological advancements is accelerating the need for upskilling. As industries evolve, workers must adapt to new tools, platforms, and processes, which has placed an even greater importance on embracing continuous learning opportunities. The Modern Learner requires education that provides both the hard skills related to today’s jobs and the soft skills to solve complex problems and adapt to a rapidly evolving workplace.
The growing popularity of certificates and micro credentials reflects this shift. These credentials offer flexible, specific learning opportunities, enabling workers to quickly acquire the skills relevant to their field. As skills become an increasing priority in the workforce these credentials emerge as a practical solution to bridge the knowledge gap, by offering accessible, hands-on learning opportunities for quick upskilling.
Looking forward
As we look forward to the future of higher education, it is evident that, while challenges persist, opportunities exist for institutions that are willing to adapt and evolve. The much-discussed enrollment cliff may be better described as an enrollment shift. This shift will be driven by economic trends and shifting learning priorities. Yes, times are changing—but this can be a catalyst for positive change within the higher ed community. Stable employment rates, the growing need for upskilling, and the rise of alternative credentials, all underscore the pivotal role higher education continues to play.
In this new era of education, the typical assumptions surrounding traditional and nontraditional learners no longer apply. Modern Learners, who are learners of all ages, increasingly prioritize flexible pathways that align with their career goals, reaffirming that age is not a predictor of learning modality as we enter into this new era. The key to success in this shifting landscape is through embracing strategies that meet Modern Learners where they are. This starts with a unified approach that speaks directly to the demands and preferences of the Modern Learner, emphasizing flexibility, affordability, and tangible career benefits.
